Two polls released on Wednesday 15 September confirm my expectations on the impact a second Level 4 lockdown will have on Labour’s popularity. A month ago in ‘Lockdown Just in Time!’ I reviewed the support of incumbent governments during elections post-Covid vs. pre-Covid, finding that governments were more than twice as likely to remain in power post-Covid than before the pandemic. This data led to me predicting that a second Level 4 lockdown in New Zealand would provide a boost in support for Labour just as the first lockdown did . . .
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