As the delta variant of Covid spreads around the world, all incumbent anglosphere governments are losing support. This is the second month in a row conditions have worsened for incumbent governments.
Australia
The Coalition Government is starting to get into serious trouble.
They are now 6% behind Labor on two party preferred vote which would see them win only 66 out of 150 seats.
Scott Morrison’s approval rating has plummeted from +14% to -2% and the net country direction has gone negative for the first time, hitting -4%. They do remain marginal favourites with the bookies and have an unemployment rate well below the OECD average of 6.4%.
At this stage, Labor are favoured to win.
Canada
PM Trudeau has called a snap election for 20 September as he seeks a third term, and to regain majority government.
However, his move appears to have backfired with the 7% lead he had in the polls having shrunk to 0% and they are now projected to only win 141 out of 338 seats.
Trudeau’s approval rating has dropped further from -16% to -21% which is a weak position for an incumbent. However, the country direction is positive at +6%.
Their unemployment rate is 1.1% above the OECD average.
The election race is too close to call but momentum is with the Conservatives who have led in 10 of the last 12 polls in late August.
New Zealand
Both the Roy Morgan poll and Newshub Reid Research poll show Labour well short of a majority, but they still lead National by an average of 12%.
The country’s net direction dropped from +24% to +21%, which is a 13% drop over two months. It will be interesting to see what the Delta outbreak does to this.
The unemployment rate of 4.0% is one of the lowest in the OECD.
The United Kingdom
The Conservatives retain a lead of 6% and are projected to win a majority but the gap has narrowed over the last two months
Boris Johnson’s approval has fallen to -13% and country direction to -8% so there is growing discontent.
Their unemployment rate is around three quarters of the OECD average.
The United States
July was a rough month for Biden, and August (which will include impact of Afghanistan) will be worse.
Biden’s approval rating fell from +9% to +7% at end of July. In late August it is now negative. This is a decline from May.
The country direction declined 2% to -14%.
Democrats are now tied on the congressional generic ballot and betting markets have them at only 30% to retain control of the House in 2022.
The US unemployment rate is 5.4%.
Summary
I would assess the order of likelihood of re-election as
1 New Zealand (Jan 2024)
2 The United Kingdom (May 2024)
3 Canada (Sep 2021)
4 Australia (Sep 2022)
5 The United States (Nov 2024)
I’d now only rate two of the five governments as being above the line, as in more likely than not to be re-elected, being NZ and the UK. In Canada, Australia and the US they are struggling.
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