The latest Roy Morgan poll has a breakdown of the results by gender, which is very useful. This allows us to compare how support has changed since the election for each party by gender.
- Labour – Men down 10% to 33%, Women down 10% to 47%
- National – Men up 7% to 33%, Women up 1% to 26%
- Greens – Men constant at 8%, Women up 4% to 12%
- ACT – Men up 7% to 18%, Women up 4% to 9%
So Labour has lost support equally from men and women, but where it has gone is quite different.
The male vote has gone to both National and ACT, while the female vote has gone to both Greens and ACT.
It is significant that ACT is peeling some female voters off Labour, as this grows the centre-right vote. ACT still has more male support than female support, but to almost double their support from women is significant.
Overall National/ACT are ahead of Labour/Greens by 10% amongst men but trail by 25% amongst women. The key to a change of Government will be if the two parties can reduce the gap amongst women so it is the same size or smaller as their lead with men.
That is a big challenge as Ardern has huge personal popularity with many women.
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