‘Year of the Vaccine’ at Risk

Dr Bryce Edwards is Political Analyst in Residence at Victoria University of Wellington. He is the director of the Democracy Project.

A consensus is emerging that the Government has generally managed the Covid crisis very well over the last 18 months, but they have dropped the ball when it comes to the crucial vaccine rollout.

This was nicely encapsulated in opinion polling last week showing that while 69 per cent of the public are positive about the Government’s overall management, only 32 per cent are positive about the vaccination programme – see Toby Manhire’s What does NZ think of the vaccine rollout?.

As Manhire notes, in its vaccine rollout New Zealand “is demonstrably slow in global terms, sitting at the foot of the OECD table, and currently ranked around 120th in the world. It’s a far cry, says the opposition, from assurances that New Zealand would be ‘at the front of the queue’.”

It seems that the Government’s promise of being “front of queue” has been its biggest mistake in Covid political management so far. This unfulfilled claim threatens to drag down the Government’s reputation for Covid competence and tarnish its reputation further in terms of its ability to “deliver” (following on from disappointments in housing, transport, and child poverty).

Perhaps the most trenchant condemnation of the rollout came in Andrea Vance’s column last week: We’ve been patient, but the vaccination roll-out is not going to plan. She says the public’s trust and patience threatens to run out, given how behind schedule the vaccination programme is.

Here’s her main point:

“New Zealand is at the bottom of the OECD for vaccination rates. Only half a million people are fully immunised. A third of border workers have not had both jabs – a milestone that was supposed to have been reached by June’s end. There are also failings in vaccinating Maori and Pasifika (with rates between 20 and 40 per cent behind Pakeha per capita), despite being twice as at-risk from the virus. The vaccination of most people living in the Canterbury region has been moved back by at least two months.”

Vance challenges the “moral argument” made by defenders of the Government that it’s been better to let the supply of the vaccine go to more deserving countries:

“That plays well to Ardern’s compassionate image, but it’s cynical. In reality, we are not safe until we are all safe, and it makes more sense for the countries with infrastructure capability to get on and vaccinate populations while others get up to speed.”

The Government has now shifted its messaging from “front of the queue” to “it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish” – arguing a slow start to the rollout won’t matter in the end. This was all well discussed in Stuff political editor Luke Malpass’ column on Saturday, Why the vaccine programme is now the only political game in town. He argues the Government could still be rewarded by the public if they get the next few weeks right:

“If Labour manages to pull it off, it will be a big tick in the competence column.” However, if the Delta variant gets into the country, then “the slowness of the vaccine programme will be brought into sharp relief.”

Similarly, Herald political editor Claire Trevett argued on Saturday that for the vaccine rollout, “the next two months will be critical for the Government, which is still being given the benefit of the doubt” – see: Angry response to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Facebook post a crossroads moment (paywalled).

Here’s Trevett’s main point:

“Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison this week apologised for the vaccine rollout there being somewhat slower than he had hoped. Australia’s rollout is pretty much the same pace as New Zealand’s – but New Zealanders are so far more accepting than Australians have been. When Ardern was asked if she too would apologise, she instead talked it up. But the Government has been issuing a ‘ramping up’ promise for months now – and people are finding they cannot get bookings for months in advance.”

The Government’s problem with public perceptions about vaccination “delivery” was also discussed yesterday by former NZ First chief of staff Jon Johansson, who says 2019 was dogged by Labour calling it “The Year of Delivery”, and so they have risked repeating this by labelling 2021 as “The Year of the Vaccine” – see: Echoes of Labour’s delivery failures in the Year of the Vaccine.

Johansson challenges the official spin-lines on the rollout, saying “the gap in logic between ‘the one source of truth’ on the Beehive podium and lived experience over the vaccine roll-out is opening a yawning perceptual gap.” And he finds it incredible that the Government has said District Health Boards have to be abolished due to their failures, and yet they are being trusted with this crucial task.

This article can be republished under a Creative Commons CC BY-ND 4.0  license. Attributions should include a link to the Democracy Project.  

Please share so others can discover The BFD.