How convenient, even cynically coincidental, that a UMR poll was released a few days after the somewhat disastrous Roy Morgan poll showing support for Labour had plummeted into the thirties. Given the idiotic announcements from the government over the last few weeks, the result was hardly surprising. Roy Morgan does tend to bounce around a bit but was fairly accurate when it came to the result of the last election. The UMR poll was in direct contrast to Roy Morgan and so, incidentally, was the polling methodology. In fact, it was a completely different type of poll. Coverage in news bulletins failed to point this out. It was conducted between June 24 and July 1.
The Roy Morgan poll was released on July 5. The UMR poll was released on July 8. There are some important things to note along with the different methodologies. This poll done by UMR, which does the Labour Party’s internal polling, is not normally made public. How interesting then, that after the disastrous Roy Morgan poll, it appears out of nowhere. Someone would have had to ask UMR for that to happen. Who? A private person we are told. I wonder just how private this person really is? Just Asking. (Capital letters are intentional).
I read recently that UMR is Jacinda Ardern’s go-to company for polling. History shows UMR polls are only released when they contain good news for Labour.
This latest poll has gone to people and places some of whom I have never heard of .e.g. eminetra, digichat, knews.uk, bahamaskivazen.com, clipboard.com, wsws.org, New Zealandlondononlinenews, x99news.com, to name some.
Wow, that is a global dissemination of what is normally private polling.
Most of the articles were headlined “Unprecedented poll result as ACT leader overtakes Judith Collins”. It is worth noting that according to pollster David Farrar, Helen Clark came 6th in a most preferred leader poll after she took over the leadership of the Labour Party so this is not an unprecedented poll result at all.
According to Claire Trevett the NZ Herald obtained a copy. Obtained, that’s a nice use of the word. How? Did she stumble across it while walking past a public rubbish receptacle while looking for food scraps? By the way, Stuff also received a copy. They would almost certainly be looking for food scraps.
Let’s look at how the methodologies used differ. Roy Morgan uses mobile phones and landlines while the UMR poll was one called a monthly omnibus poll. ‘Survey’ would be a more appropriate word.
UMR each month survey their OTHER CLIENTS on a number of different topics, not all of which are related to politics. In this type of poll, the person requesting it can decide the type and tenor of the questions he or she would like asked. Credit is due to both the NZ Herald and Stuff for stating it was the UMR monthly omnibus poll.
Now, who has twigged to what might possibly be going on here? No names, no pack drill as the saying goes, but there is ample room for suspicion.
The results of the Roy Morgan poll would not have been known when UMR were conducting their polling but the UMR was readily available when needed to provide alternative numbers. Roy Morgan in round figures had Labour on 38 and National on 29. UMR (clients only) had Labour on 48 and National on 24. As I mentioned earlier, given the political nonsense that came from the government over the polling period, ask yourself which is the more believable poll. UMR also had Ardern on 55 per cent. Total BS.
Why was the UMR poll headlined on most press items with the ‘unprecedented Seymour overtakes Collins scenario’? I’ll tell you what the polls won’t. Judith is doing damage.
Labour can see she is getting her own house in order and the true figures they are seeing has them looking like they’re queuing up for Trevor Mallard’s expensive slide. They wouldn’t have liked one statistic in the BS poll and that was the rating among National supporters for Judith as the leader, 37 per cent well ahead of the only other MP who got a mention, Christopher Luxon on 5 per cent.
What this says to the Judith doubters, and I include MPs, is that they need to realise they now have their leader and all their energies need to go into formulating a winning strategy for 2023.
In summary, the UMR results were part of a wider poll; they were released on request from a so-called private person a few days after a bad poll for Labour. This was obviously done to negate the bad poll and to induce the public to think the previous poll was something of a rogue one.
Compare the column inches written about the UMR poll and the Roy Morgan. The Roy Morgan headline to their poll read as follows: Is the COVID-19 ‘honeymoon’ over for PM Jacinda Ardern? Much more accurate given the current state of our politics.
What do you think the letters UMR might stand for? I reckon it could be Unadulterated Muckraking Rubbish.
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