Hitler and Stalin were unimaginable in the 19th century. What was new in the 20th? Democracy. If you add a mystery chemical to a fish tank and the fish start dying, it could be a coincidence. On the other hand, maybe the chemical is fish poison. Occam would want you to consider the possibility.

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Nathan Smith is a former business journalist and columnist at the NBR. He also worked as the chief editor at the New Zealand Initiative policy think tank. He is now a freelance writer and copy editor.