17th May 2021
I was in the fortunate position today of making contact again with some of my sources who have gone underground. The thing that came across was the anger that is bubbling away inside them. They are angry that one man has killed the country that they were building, with a future for all. They are educated people, many of them and their associates have degrees from overseas universities and they had returned to Myanmar to help build the nation as it made the first tentative moves towards democracy.
Surprisingly, they are also angry at Daw Aung San Suu Kyi for allowing herself to be pushed into this position by her actions between the elections and the coup. They feel that she displayed arrogance and political insensitivity towards the Tatmadaw and General Min Aung Hlaing and overplayed her hand instead of moving at a slower pace. They still revere her as “The Lady” but acknowledge that she made a series of mistakes. This does not excuse the General who they see as a narcissistic, power-mad, greedy sadist. In an interesting theological argument, they thought that Buddhism had a weakness in that there was no form of life low enough into which he could be reincarnated.
The general view that they expressed was that the General thought this would be like other coups when the rebellions petered out after 5 or 6 weeks. Instead, this one has bucked the trend and has got him, and the army bogged down in a situation where they will not win. They may beat the people into submission, but they will have lost a country. He can’t back down without losing face, but he is slowly losing face with the military. His only way of keeping power will be through the rigid imposition of martial law and wholesale brutality.
The main physical resistance has come from the ethnic zones and the poorer areas of Myanmar. There was wholesale slaughter in two working-class suburbs of Yangon and armed resistance has spread to poor suburbs and towns throughout the country. The poor are hopelessly outgunned having only hunting rifles and Molotov cocktails but are slowly getting access to stolen weapons and ammunition. In a couple of cases, they have acquired RPGs. They are inflicting unexpected casualties on the troops and have retreated into the jungle reappearing to ambush troops and supply convoys.
The middle class of Myanmar was growing at 20% a year as more people increased incomes during the period of high growth. This group are extremely vociferous in their opposition and have expressed it through the CDM (civil disobedience movement) which has brought the economy to its knees. Apart from the total collapse of the banking system it is evident through indicators such as Myanmar brand beer sales being down by 50%, the brewery being owned by the Generals.
The poor are giving their lives in combat as they have nothing to lose but want to see the Generals ousted as under the Generals, they would have nothing, not even survival on the poverty line.
The middle classes are inflicting severe economic damage as this includes civil servants. The mechanics of government are falling apart. No one has paid power bills recently as meter readers aren’t working and bills aren’t being sent out. The power suppliers/government will soon run out of money and this will result in no electricity being produced.
With few people working, there are hardly any taxes being paid resulting in a huge cash shortfall for the government. They can’t borrow overseas, and the Generals and cronies were able to fund themselves from their owned ventures such as the breweries. Income from those is now severely constrained. Pay to the soldiers is being delayed in some units resulting in looting and theft from civilians.
The middle class don’t go out when it is dark and the whole country has a dystopian look about it.
The independent body overseeing the 2020 election issued its report today.
Rejecting the claims of mass fraud and voting irregularities used by the Myanmar military to justify its coup, an international monitoring group said in its final report on the results of last year’s polls that the vote reflected the true will of the electorate.
Rejecting the regime’s allegations of electoral fraud, the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL), one of two foreign observer missions accredited to monitor the vote, said “Election Day was found to be peaceful and orderly across the country, with no major incidents reported,” in its final comprehensive report released on Monday.
The report found that the campaign environment ahead of the general elections was not quite as free or fair as in 2015, however, in part of because of the unprecedented backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Nevertheless, it is ANFREL’s informed opinion that the results of the 2020 general elections were, by and large, representative of the will of the people of Myanmar,” the report reads.
“Despite the raging COVID-19 pandemic, 27.5 million people voted thanks to the hard work of polling staff and election or health officials, their voices cannot be silenced,” Chandanie Watawala, executive director of ANFREL, is quoted as saying in the report.
ANFREL added that the 2020 election was marked by efforts to increase diversity and achieve greater inclusion, with an increase in women candidates; an emphasis placed by political parties on fielding ethnic candidates and reaching out to 5 million first-time voters; continued efforts to provide advance voting opportunities to the elderly and PWD (persons with disabilities) voters; and the first-ever openly LGBT candidates, among others.
“ANFREL found no reason to doubt the overall integrity of the advance voting process,” it said, referring to a phase of the election that drew allegations of fraud from the military and its allied party. To the contrary, ANFREL said, the UEC allowed greater participation in a challenging environment.
Earlier, other poll monitors including the US-based Carter Center and Myanmar’s largest election observer group, People’s Alliance for Credible Elections (PACE), said in their reports the election was largely free and fair with no major irregularities.
Source The Irrawaddy 17th May 2021.
That’s just confirming what we all knew.
And still the demonstrations continue, with the monks joining in.
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