The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour dropping 4% and National gaining 6.5%. It seems the middle is moving. This poll was obviously taken ahead of the He Puapua revelations of the weekend and so, for this shift to be meaningful, National needs to bank this poll and forge on ahead.

The Labour/Greens government support is down 2.5% points to 55% in April. Support for the Labour Party dropped 4% points to 41.5% in April (its lowest level of support since February 2020 prior to the pandemic) while support for the Greens was up 1.5% points to 13.5%.

The governing parties are now 14% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/Maori Party on 41%, up 6% points since March. Support for National has now recovered to its highest since last year’s election, up 6.5% points to 29.5%, and is the highest for exactly a year since April 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The recovery in support for National has come from both the Labour Party and fellow Opposition Party Act NZ, now on 9%, down 2% points from March. Support for the Maori Party has increased and is up by 1.5% points to post-election high of 2.5% in April.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 933 electors during April. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed there were 6% (up 1.5% points) who didn’t name a party.

In April 55% of electors supported the Labour/Greens governing partnership, down 2.5% points on March. The governing parties are now 14% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/Maori Party on 41%, up 6% points since March.

This is the narrowest lead for the Labour-led Government for over a year since January 2020 when Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Government led 53% cf. 43% over the National-led Opposition.

Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan polls tend to bounce around, but the trend this year is upwards for National and downwards for Labour. As I said above, National needs to bank this gain and see another gain next month.

The next step after that is to stop the bounces, and cement in those gains. They can do this by holding the government to account, which is what they have been doing.

The government is suffering some economic headwinds at the moment, and their housing announcements won’t have anything like the intended results they envisage.

Rent rises will keep on coming, businesses will keep on sliding under, and Labour’s health reforms will mire them in endless working groups, cost blowouts and non-delivery.

How anyone thinks that Labour can deliver on any of their promises based on their track record thus far is beyond me. They quite simply couldn’t deliver a pizza without screwing it all up.

The He Puapua scandal will grow as more people realise that Labour are intent on subverting our democracy and intent on creating a two-tiered state with Maori in charge. That is why you are seeing such a concerted effort to discredit the valid claims and questions about the scheme. Labour has already implemented two key planks of the scheme, and National can earnestly and honestly ask, “What is coming next?”

Let’s see what next month brings. I suspect we will see another rise for National and then we will start to see the government being forced to react to staunch the bleeding.

Or the government will arrogantly ignore it, and do what they are going to do anyway because they have the majority to do it.

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Roy Morgan Poll Signals a Shift, Now National Needs to Bank It
Cam Slater

Cam Slater

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...