1st April 2021
With the impending involvement of more EAOs in the resistance to the Coup, I thought that it may help to provide a couple of maps showing the ethnic groups in Myanmar and the location of EAOs. (Ethnic Armed Organisations).
If the EAOs manage to get together with the CDM protesters and form a united front working towards a federal Burma, then the coup is in trouble. Talks are going on between them towards this end. Not to be outdone, in an attempt to push a wedge between the groups and stop this from happening the Military are talking to selected ethnic groups. The problem the military has is that because of past history, no one believes them anymore, and all trust has gone. The military, through misreading the situation in January is pushing the country into a fully-fledged civil war. Once that happens, the odds are that it will have become a failed state, and even China doesn’t want that to happen on its borders. China would prefer a fully controlled client state, economically dependent on China.
Below is a clip showing the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) taking over a government outpost.
Meanwhile diplomatic pressure continues, not that it seems to be having any effect.
The United Nations special envoy on Myanmar has issued a stark warning that the country is heading for a likely “bloodbath” if the international community doesn’t do more to stop violence against anti-junta protesters.
The remarks by Christine Schraner Burgener during a closed-door session of the U.N. Security Council, come as Myanmar’s deposed leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, faced new, more serious charges brought by the junta to mark two months since her Feb. 1 ouster.
Burgener on Wednesday told the Security Council that if “collective action” isn’t taken to reverse the coup, “a bloodbath is imminent.” She warned of a “multi-dimensional catastrophe in the heart of Asia,” according to testimony obtained by The Associated Press and Reuters.
Source National Public Radio (NPR) USA, 1st April 2021.
In an ominous move Chinese troops have been reported as moving up to the border with Shan state at the town of Muse in Myanmar and the Chinese town of Ruili/Jiegao. This is a major border crossing. WW2 historians may recognise it as being 100km up the road from Lashio.
Several sources on the Chinese border reported that troops were gathering in Jiegao, opposite the Shan State border town of Muse.
Many Chinese soldiers and military trucks have arrived at the border in previous days.
Sources from ethnic armed groups said China was sending a warning signal to Myanmar.
TVBS News in Taiwan reported that Chinese troops are there to protect the natural gas pipeline without suggesting how.
In early March, the Chinese asked Myanmar’s military regime to protect the oil and gas pipelines following the emergence of anti-Chinese sentiment and protesters threatening to blow up the pipelines.
The 800-km twin pipeline project runs from Kyaukphyu in Rakhine State on the Bay of Bengal through Magwe and Mandalay regions and northern Shan State to China.
China has repeatedly insisted that the armed forces’ seizure of power from the democratically elected government is an internal affair, including at the United Nations Security Council and UN Human Rights Council.
In February, the Chinese Embassy in Yangon faced daily protests, demanding Beijing stops support for Myanmar’s military. Moreover, anti-Chinese sentiment has emerged in Myanmar, including boycotts of Chinese products.
On Monday, the tripartite Brotherhood Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Arakan Army (AA) condemned the military junta after the civilian death toll rose to over 500.
The three groups warned the military that they would collaborate with other ethnic armed organizations and pro-democracy supporters to defend civilians from the regime’s brutal crackdowns. All three armies are based along the Chinese border and the AA also has substantial forces in northern Rakhine State, bordering Bangladesh. They can all challenge Myanmar’s military and have close relations with China.
Source the Irrawaddy 1st April 2021.
As I was finishing writing this piece, news was coming in of Taunggyi, the largest town in Shan state on fire.
Later this month (13th to 16th April) Myanmar is supposed to be celebrating Thingyan, the annual water festival, which is a time of families getting together, celebrations and happiness. This year will be a sad occasion.
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