23rd February 2021
The CDM are planning their actions and have given themselves 2 weeks whilst the military is organising itself to progress as far as they can. The two weeks is how long the military has given itself to round up leaders and civil society activists, get internet clampdowns in place and produce planning scenarios for a major, violent repressive clampdown. They have tasked their psychiatric units to work on PR, false news, and the issuing of confusing signals to blindside the CDM.
Another and more sinister tool is online information warfare. Here it is all about creating a disrupted information sphere where disinformation can spread and sow distrust between different groups in society. The numerous internet disruptions and shutdowns of Facebook have done just that, creating an information deficit in which rumours and disinformation can run wild. This has been observed in several cases over the last weeks.
Source the Diplomat 22nd Feb 2021
The extent of the CDM was something that they hadn’t factored into their equations and is causing them concern. It is expected that because of the depth of the resistance the Military reaction will be greater and more violent than before. They are just marking time at the moment and showing restraint until they are comfortable with the degree of arrests and control they have exerted on the population.
The CDM on the other hand have found alternative means of communication and are building a network that avoids the normal internet, Facebook, mobile phone providers etc.
It is getting increasingly difficult to obtain information from Myanmar. The Military have put orders out to the independent media (such as it is) as to what they can report. They are forbidden to refer to a “coup”. Outside observers mustn’t fall into the trap of thinking of the military as stupid, ignorant thugs. Far from it, they are often intelligent but with skewed morals. They are blinded by greed for money and power, and arrogance in that they think that only the Military can solve the country’s problems, even though it was the Military that spent 50 years transforming Burma from the richest country in South East Asia to the poorest.
The Military can operate almost as a state within a state and have their own schools, gated communities, hospitals, and banks. They are making plans to survive a long shutdown if the general strike takes hold. What is going to be a problem is if the CDM, as it has already done, can succeed in hacking in to the military’s systems and also any companies in which they have a major interest. This has been started on a small scale, with some of the hacking being done from over the border in Thailand.
As I mentioned previously the Military have succeeded in achieving the impossible. They have united different factions and groups within Myanmar. These groups now have a common enemy.
Rumour has it that Indonesia is trying to broker a settlement and is taking the lead within ASEAN. At first sight it sounds as though the deal gives the Generals everything and the people nothing, trying to set out guidelines for an election in one year’s time. There is so much disinformation flying around that one has to be careful with sources and verification. With that caveat, below is a secret document from the Ministry of Transport confirming the visit of the Indonesian Foreign Minister to Myanmar on 25th February. Unfortunately, my Burmese isn’t good enough to translate it (I can order a coffee and that’s about it!) but I am sure if it is insulting or irrelevant one of BFD’s readers will be quick to let us know.
Confirmation of Indonesian visit.
Retno L.P. Marsudi referred to above is indeed the Indonesian Minister of Foreign Affairs. It will be interesting to see what emerges from that meeting. I will certainly keep you all informed as best I can, but sources are getting quieter.
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