20th February 2021
The ex-ambassador has an assessment of China’s position which I will comment on tomorrow. I know that it is a long way from New Zealand, but because of the actions of New Zealand’s fading allies, it is of major importance to New Zealand.
Today was the funeral of Mya Thwe Thwe Khine. Her sister, Mya Thadoe New said “Keep on fighting against this Military regime. Keep fighting until it has been completely eradicated. I want the world to know. I want the world to help.”
One of the deaths in Mandalay yesterday was at the shipyard on the Irrawaddy. The shipyard workers were refusing to allow ship movements and would not crew ships taking fuel and other supplies up the river to Myitkyina. This is because previously, as reported here, the railway workers refused to let a supply train leave for Myitkyina. The roads to Myitkyina are difficult, both in terms of roadworthiness and the danger from attacks by Kachin rebels. Myitkyina has been subject to particularly brutal crackdowns and it is rumoured that the authorities are running low on fuel and other materiel. Hence the pressure on workers in Mandalay.
It is apparent now what tactics are being adopted by the authorities. They are trying to inflict maximum terror without massive, violent oppression. This is why they are using snipers to take out easy targets of ordinary civilians and not necessarily targeting the ring leaders. The leaders are being visited at night and taken away for further discussions in isolated buildings. Originally targeted at politicians and activists, these snatch squads are now taking away doctors, teachers and civil servants who are refusing to work. Neighbourhood watch teams are springing up to alert people of the movements of the authorities, allowing targets to move away. Yesterday, in Yangon, a man on neighbourhood patrol stopped the police and asked what they were doing. His reward was a bullet in the back of the head.
During the demonstrations, the police are using screws and catapults to inflict maximum hurt against innocent civilians. They are also using these against people watching from windows, to deter photography and the use of recording devices. Unfortunately for the authorities, this is proving to be counter-productive and is serving to increase the determination of the protesters to continue the pressure on the authorities.
What is succeeding is the economic pressure being applied by the CDM. There are thought to be 66% of civil servants on strike and the machinery of government is grinding to a halt. Most of the private banks are closed and have workers absent for a variety of reasons. Kanbawza Bank (KBZ), the largest bank is closed but is trying to help “ordinary” customers by using mobile ATMs to give them access to cash.
Although China is the biggest trading partner of Myanmar the biggest investors are Japan, Thailand, and Singapore. These three countries are getting increasingly cross with the Military and the Military are panicking because future development funds, which directly and indirectly impact on their investments will be put on indefinite hold.
The military are frightened, not just of the economic breakdown, but because if the coup hadn’t taken place then their leaders would have been given up to International justice by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to face being called to account for their previous misdemeanours.
In the past, the military took advantage of their independence as they had their own hospitals, schools and banks and lived in gated communities. Soldiers were banned from listening to short wave radio so couldn’t access BBC Burmese service and other radio stations. They were insulated from the feelings of the general population.
The coup on February 1 was started according to the normal Burmese military playbook. What they didn’t factor in was the rise of the CDM movement. The young have been organising things differently from their previous demonstrations. They are communicating by social media and this is now reaching the average soldier and their families. They are beginning to understand the feelings of the population and are slowly realising that the main driver is the ego and vested interests of the privileged Generals.
In an interview, a previous US ambassador to Myanmar, Derek Mitchell, said that the Generals have achieved their stated ambition in uniting the country. The ethnic armies and rebels are joining together with the rest of the population in their hatred of the Generals. They are united like never before.
Derek Mitchell went on to say that he had met with the current senior General many times during his period in Myanmar (2011-2016) and tested him on the possibility of democracy going forward. He said that the General was a creature of the military and showed no sign of changing from the rigid position of the previous 50 years.
That means that even today, the military regard themselves as the guardians of the nation’s security and unity. As a result, they deserve the spoils of money, position, and respect from the population. It has been said that in the days leading up to the coup, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi showed a lack of respect to Min Aung Hlaing and this was the main trigger for the coup.
Mitchell put forward the view that many in the military disagreed with the reasons for the coup and argued against it right up until January 30th. In the end, it was one man, Min Aung Hlaing who pushed it through. Once done, the military closed ranks and had to see the coup through to wherever it would take them and had to follow orders (now where have I heard that before?)
Mitchell confirmed that he was close to the Biden administration and helping to formulate and implement a policy. To that end, he was talking to the Japanese government and had noted that India and Australia were also working together. In fact, the Quad is working hard together. (Another missed opportunity for New Zealand to punch above its weight on the International stage and be seen to be a respected part of the Western bloc. But that would mean Jacinda Ardern actually doing something rather than mouthing platitudes. New Zealand’s standing amongst the leading Western nations and the Anglos in particular is rapidly going down the toilet).
Interestingly, Mitchell said that they were trying to look for signs that the military were willing to look for a compromise. He said that they hadn’t had one yet but felt sure that during the future they would want to talk. The problem and major sticking point is the clash between 2 headstrong people, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing.
Very interesting.
As I close this letter, there are reports coming in of heavy traffic on the airport bridge road in Yangon.
These are military infantry fighting vehicles, not armoured personnel carriers, the difference being that the UFVs have weaponry so they can engage in action. They double as troop carriers and weapon systems and generally have as a minimum 20mm cannon as main weaponry.
They have been rebadged and painted as police vehicles so that at a glimpse you would think they were water cannon.
It is hotting up in Myanmar and the situation is in danger of escalating.
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