7th February 2021
It is becoming clear that the coup was planned well in advance and is running according to plan for the military. They had all the likely reactions assessed and shut down means of communication to slow down the planning of internal resistance and to prevent pictures/videos of resistance reaching the outside world. It also bought the military time to round up the politicians and civil servants, which was pretty easy as they were all in Nay Pyi Taw for the opening of parliament. This would give them time to get the mechanics of government working again.
However, the hiatus also gave protesters time to plan and get organised. After a slow start, the protests have picked up pace. Video clips show thousands of protesters with red flags and shirts, displaying the three fingered salute on the march. The UN has just estimated the crowd at 60,000. They are shown marching down Pyay Road, from the University area towards downtown Yangon. In downtown Yangon, people were gathering outside city hall, by Maha Bandula park, in order to stand by the Independence monument. This is of poignant significance as it was the scene of the massacre of hundreds of protesters on 8/8/88.
Meanwhile, in Myawaddy, a city south-east of Yangon, a modest demonstration took place. Myawaddy is the mainland border crossing with Thailand and as such is of strategic importance. A video clip has emerged on which shots can be heard. It is not clear whether these were rifled sidearms or rubber bullets. All to disperse a crowd of about 200. Well done the big and brave police.
Back in Nay Pyi Taw, there is concern over the whereabouts and safety of Sean Turnell, an Australian academic. Sean has been detained but there is no news as to his whereabouts. He is a professor from Macquarie University and was the economic advisor to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Prior to 2015, he was an advisor to the government, having written many academic papers on Myanmar’s economy. He has been a resident of Nay Pyi Taw since 2017, but there is no sign of him at his house.
Resistance is growing and there are rumours of major civil disobedience being planned with strikes being organised. The protestors are targeting the economy in an effort to hurt the military and with low economic activity because of the closure of Facebook this could bite quite quickly. News is still filtering through as The Frontier magazine and The Irawaddy newspaper are managing to get short reports out. Many people, including insiders from the Aung San Suu Kyi government have joined Signal and Bridgefy and are managing to get news and messages out.
There are rumours leaking out that not all the military are on board with the coup as they see it as a blatant power grab by Min Aung Hlaing and not for the military’s benefit. It is well known that he has a hatred of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on a personal level and this has played a key part in the coup. There are also stories coming out about the uncertain loyalty of some battalions, especially in conflict zones and this may embolden the EAOs. Indeed, in Yangon the protestors have been seen sharing water and snacks with the police as it’s 30c in Yangon.
All in all, a confused state of affairs, but tension is building and the next few days will reveal whether the civil disobedience has worked.
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