5th February 2021
Things are certainly on the move in Myanmar. Health professionals, doctors, nurses and ancillary workers have withdrawn their support from the military government. They will still treat the populace, delivering the rudimentary health care available to an ordinary Burmese as best they can, but adopting a policy of non-co-operation with the military. This is largely symbolic as the military have their own health care system and train their own medics at the military medical school.
Following on from this, the teachers are withdrawing their support, with groups of them being filmed outside learning institutions displaying signs saying “Civil disobedience, Myanmar schools”. In an act of bravery, the teachers are not disguised, wearing only Covid masks and so are readily identifiable. Many impromptu marches are taking place in Yangon and this has now spread to the second city – Mandalay. In Mandalay people have taken to the streets with hand made banners saying “Peoples protest against Military Coup” in Burmese and English.
There has been two evenings of pot banging throughout Yangon with residents openly banging tin pots. This is a traditional method of driving evil from the home and is a pragmatic response as it is easier to shoot into a mass demonstration outside city hall than it is to pick off individual residents in 6 and 7 story apartment blocks.
There are convoys being driven around Yangon of cars honking their horns in support of the pot banging.
Meanwhile, General Min Aung Hlaing is busy trying to consolidate his position. It is becoming clear that it is a blatant power grab for him personally as he was due to retire later this year and this was his chance to prolong his political career and control of the nation. He and his family have built extensive business interest in Myanmar and they have a large shareholding in Myanmar breweries. The largest shareholder, Kirin, today terminated its joint venture agreement with the brewing company.
Facebook, What’s App and Instagram have been closed down by the Military after exerting pressure on the internet providers. Over half the population has access to these services and the closure is to limit their being used to organise demonstrations and resistance. Facebook accounts for about 85% of all internet traffic in Myanmar. Digital marketing companies invest heavily in Facebook; it can be a large percentage of their clients’ total ad spend. For business to consumer (B2C) companies, a comprehensive Facebook page is essential. Companies should expect and prepare for large amounts of leads, complaints and queries through the messaging platform. Because most people only use Facebook, there’s increased competition for ad space. Small businesses use it as their primary internet sales and marketing tool.
NGOs use Facebook to supply their target demographics with helpful information on things like pregnancy, diet advice, family planning or financial advice.
In one fell swoop, the military has reduced the ability for dissidents to communicate, and restricted NGOs from pushing their civic society and justice activity. On the other hand, it is extremely damaging to small business which will find it difficult to carry on business in the short term. The 127,000 small business and their employees will start to push back.
Today, the military were ensconced in closed door meetings in Nay Pyi Taw with ministers, where they were told that there would be no change in foreign affairs, economy or the political road map. (I don’t believe it either).
They also met businessmen from some key sectors in Myanmar (that is the businesses that aren’t already owned or de facto owned by families of the military). Construction, manufacturing and agriculture were represented and Min Aung Hlaing explained that he wasn’t going to terminate or suspend any ongoing projects, including those with international partners. (He obviously hasn’t had feedback from those international partners yet!). There are 4 mobile phone service providers, Ooredo (based in Qatar), Telenor (Norwegian company), Mytel (a JV between the Myanmar military and Vietnam’s Ministry of Defence) and MPT which is state owned. Mytel is a major source of revenue for the military, not the government. Any closure of the mobile phone system will cost the military a lot of revenue.
Further closed-door meetings were held with the health ministry, the major concern being the impact of the health workers’ actions and its impact on the management of the Covid outbreak in a health system that is stretched to its limits. India has just delivered its first consignment of vaccine to Myanmar, but the next shipment due today has been delayed by a week.
The military also pledged to continue the peace process with the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) due to take place later this year. This will be a key indicator of progress for the regime. Failure in this after a coup will result in intensified action in the outer states.
All in all, it’s a bit of a mess. I can’t see Biden riding over the hill on a white charger, and diplomatic gossip in Yangon agrees, and the Chinese will still play at being supporters of the regime whilst undermining them in the rebel held parts of the border states. The last thing they want is a stable regime that is friendly with India.
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