There’s an old saying: “Anger is a bit like sitting in a rocking chair, it gives you something to do but it doesn’t take you anywhere.”
You could say the same thing about polls. If they back up your view of the world, they are moderately interesting and might be accurate. If they come out with an opposing outcome, they are still moderately interesting and we might view them as less accurate. Either way, they give us something to do, but really don’t take us anywhere.
One doesn’t need to look back very far in history to see that polls have been astronomically wrong and there’s a very obvious reason for it: Polling is not a science. It is at best an educated guesstimate of random statistical information assembled to try and make sense of something that actually can’t be made sense of because humans tell lies.
The Trump victory, Brexit, the Australian election and the UK election are glaring examples of just how wrong the polls can be.
But here’s a poll that just might be on the right track: A recent poll in the USA had over 60% of respondents admitting that they wouldn’t admit truthfully what politician or party they support for fear of repercussions. Just do a random sampling among your friends. It’s highly likely that the percentage who won’t openly admit who they support (particularly if they happen to not support a popular incumbent), won’t be willing to say so.
From a New Zealand perspective, saying anything at all against Jacinda in certain company can result in vicious personal attacks. While I’m happy to debate facts, I’m just not prepared to waste time and energy banging my head against a brick wall. I don’t like how Jacinda Ardern operates. I dislike her politics and I question her honesty and lack of integrity. Yep, she manages to look good on TV and nods and smiles and says some of the right things. She is a very good slogan princess. Underneath it all I see very dark shadows. That’s an opinion and I can produce facts to support why I hold such opinions but it’s a waste of time telling any of her supporters because in their eyes, she walks on water. So, rather than go through the unpleasantness of either being personally abused or listening to people who should know better spouting pathetic platitudinous nonsense at me, I choose not to engage at all.
If a polling company asked me anything I would decline to comment at all. Others tell me they tell them what they think they want to hear. It’s easier than being rude to someone on the phone.
Anyway, there are many reasons why people don’t tell the truth in a poll and there is absolutely no solid, reliable way for pollsters to confirm honesty and accordingly accuracy. So why waste time arguing the polls? Why even bother reading them? Why compare the last poll with this one? How does any of this help anybody with anything other than feeding some egos and killing others?
We don’t need polls to tell us what to think. Most of us can step back and put together a logical argument for what might happen in this year’s election.
- Judith Collins’s leadership has completely changed the landscape. It’s early days yet but her impact is already becoming more evident by the day.
- There will be glitches. They are a part of politics. A few resignations and isolated bad behaviour by MPs will have minimal impact – unless leaders (in particular) are caught in lies.
- More “glitches” are highly likely to break before the election. They may or may not be game changers.
- Winston Peters’s personal popularity crashed when he anointed Labour and the Greens. He will be unable to recover from that.
- NZ First has slipped further by making some poor decisions. Their “handbrake” argument won’t be strong enough to save them.
- Unless Peters pulls a rabbit out of the hat before election day, NZ First will be gone. The rabbit needs to be full of humble pie; a total and unequivocal rejection of his decision to put Labour in power and would require a cast-iron commitment to supporting National. Nothing less will work.
- Jones won’t win the electorate seat.
- Many people who voted Green last election have now seen their social policies for what they are. They were supporting a “save the planet” party last time. They won’t support the Green Communists this time. Greens will be very lucky to make 5%.
- Labour will not get more than 50% of the vote.
- National will not get more than 50% of the vote.
- ACT will be around 5%.
Assuming my guesses, which I hasten to add are no more accurate than the polls, turn out to be close to the mark, it will come down to where the Green and NZ First voters from last election decide to go. Could the Green “save the planet” voters in the cities go to National? Wouldn’t NZ First voters have more natural affinity for National?
The only poll that counts is on election day. If the two major parties manage to hold close to what they had in 2017 and ACT does get close to 5%, Judith Collins will be Prime Minister of New Zealand with a National/ACT government.
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