1News released their latest Colmar Brunton poll yesterday:
Labour: 50 down 9 (62 seats)
National: 38 up 9 (47 seats)
Greens: 6 (7 seats)
NZ First: 2
Act: 3 (4 seats)
Preferred PM
Jacinda Ardern: 54
Todd Muller: 13
Net Approvals
Jacinda Ardern: Not given in news segment
Todd Muller: 9
When Labour changed leaders in 2017 the bounce was 13%. Todd Muller has only got a 9% bounce. It remains to be seen whether or not it is a dead cat bounce. The next set of polls will tell us.
Whilst some in National might take some heart, I’d just point out that National + Act still equals three more years in opposition. We are still looking at a Labour/Greens coalition. There is going to need to be a significant improvement in National’s fortunes to get there.
This poll may wake NZ First up to the betrayal of gun owners. Instead of sending out smarmy emails claiming it’s a good deal, they might find better electoral profit in actually apologising for cocking it all up.
I think the best campaign strategy for Todd Muller would be to go on holiday in Fiji for 6 weeks and then spend two weeks in quarantine and let the ineptocracy of Labour unravel over the same time.
There are a few scandals to drop yet. The binning of 5 million masks will break sometime and there is a looming scandal involving a minister and some hi-jinks over immigration.
When the news breaks about the firearm used to kill Constable Matthew Hunt, there are going to be some very red faces and some serious questions are going to need to be answered.
If Grant Robertson and Jacinda Ardern get their way and pay off the grasping and greedy squatters at Ihumatao then this election campaign will really open up.
The propensity of inept Labour ministers to screw up is very high so don’t count the election out just yet.
It is still Labour’s to lose, but if the Prime Minister keeps fools in jobs then they just might make that happen.
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