As if the 1News/Colmar Brunton and the Newshub/Reid Research polls weren’t bad enough, Roy Morgan have begun polling again and have confirmed the accuracy of both the other polls.
- Labour 56.5% (January 40%, March 42.5%, April 55%)
- National 26.5% (January 40%, March 37 %, April 30.5%)
- Greens 7% (January 10.5%, March 11.5%, April 7%)
- NZ First 2.5% (January 7.2%, March 3%, April 2.5%)
- ACT Party 3.5% (January 0.5%, March 3.5%, April 2.5%)
- Maori Party 1.5% (April 1.5%)
- The Opportunities Party 1% (April 0.5%)
In May in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, and amidst gradual re-opening of the NZ economy, support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party has soared to 56.5%. Labour Party support is up 1.5% since April and up a stunning 16.5% since January 2020 when the two major parties were locked at 40% support each.
The rise in support for Labour is such that were an election held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.
National support has dropped significantly to only 26.5% in May, down 4% from April and down 13.5% since January. The large drop in support for National over the last two months has seen the Opposition replace former leader Simon Bridges with Todd Muller in late May.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors during April 27 – May 24, 2020. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
Roy Morgan’s polling shows that there was still some sort of parity in January but the gap opened up shortly after that.
The National party caucus had to do something, but whether they’ve done the right thing remains to be seen.
I suspect that the next public polls will see a small uptick in National’s support, but it may well be a dead cat bounce.
Based on the last three Roy Morgan polls, the “Coalition of Losers” may not be that relevant any longer. In fact if National can get closer to Labour then the label may just have to be applied to them if they can find some coalition partners.
The Government v. Opposition chart shows just how monumental the task is for National.
In reality the only way they can win is for them to get within reach of Labour, and if NZ First recovers their vote. There is no other possible way for them to govern.
The poll was taken mostly before National changed leaders. Only two days of the poll included Todd Muller’s leadership.
It does however confirm that the previous two polls were accurate.
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