The latest UMR poll has leaked and it shows that National is haemorrhaging support. It is bleeding out, just like 2002, as I predicted in a series of podcasts.
The National Party has dropped below 30 per cent in a UMR poll while Labour has reached as high as 55 per cent.
And when it comes to preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern has reached a near record-breaking 65 per cent approval rating.
Her popularity eclipses that of her National Party rival, Opposition leader Simon Bridges, who is on a mere 7 per cent.
It is understood the poll was conducted by Labour’s polling company UMR for its corporate clients, who paid UMR for a monthly snapshot of the political scene.
The results have been confirmed to the Herald by a number of different sources.
The poll was taken between the 21st and the 27th of April – while the country was in the level 4 lockdown.At 55 per cent, Labour would be able to form a government by itself.
But speaking to the Herald, Bridges rubbished the poll.
“UMR are Labour’s pollsters and are consistently, badly wrong.”
He added that Labour “should be focused on getting New Zealand back to work, not leaking dodgy numbers.”
Perhaps Bridges might like to share Curia’s numbers? No? Alright then.
Labour wouldn’t have leaked these numbers, they want Bridges to remain as leader, not have him toppled.
This is a drop at a scale far larger than Bill English‘s ignominious 2002 drop. It promises to get even worse.
But at 29% there isn’t all bad news, National would lose all of its list MPs, so Paula Bennett might struggle to return to parliament.
She may still return though if National loses some key electorates. The wets in caucus would be gutted. A swing this large would see both Nikki Kaye (majority 1519) and Chris Bishop (majority 1530) unseated. At those polling levels any seat with a majority of under 6500 will go, unless there is a really strong incumbent or a third party candidate who is strong.
Name | Seat | Entered Parliament | Margin |
BISHOP, Chris | Hutt South Electorate | 2014 | 1530 |
KAYE, Nikki | Auckland Central Electorate | 2008 | 1581 |
HIPANGO, Harete | Whanganui Electorate | 2017 | 1706 |
LEE, Denise | Maungakiekie Electorate | 2017 | 2157 |
YULE, Lawrence | Tukituki Electorate | 2017 | 2813 |
SCOTT, Alastair | Wairarapa Electorate | 2014 | 2872 |
SMITH, Nick | Nelson Electorate | 1990 | 4283 |
TOLLEY, Anne | East Coast Electorate | 1999 | 4807 |
Not yet announced | Invercargill Electorate | 2014 | 5579 |
BENNETT, David | Hamilton East Electorate | 2005 | 5810 |
COSTLEY, Tim | Otaki Electorate | 2095 | 6156 |
BIDOIS, Dan | Northcote Electorate | 2005 | 6210 |
FALLOON, Andrew | Rangitata Electorate | 2017 | 6331 |
I don’t think Lawrence Yule or Nick Smith would lose their seats, but the replacements for Sarah Dowie and Nathan Guy (Tim Costley) would. I also haven’t included Northland’s Matt King because he won’t be fighting off Winston Peters this election, so should see his majority improve over 2017.
So, National could potentially lose 11 seats, and whether or not those MPs return depends on their list position. On a percentage basis National would only be entitled to 36 seats, down from 56 seats. A loss of 20 MPs. It would be carnage.
National’s caucus surely must act to save the furniture. That is what Chris Trotter and I discussed last week.
Time is of the essence now. National’s caucus can no longer act like Pavlov’s dogs in some sort of bizarre behavioural experiment. The longer they prevaricate the worse it gets.
Simon Bridges claims that these numbers are dodgy. He can stop the coup rumours and actions by simply releasing his own numbers. Surely if UMR’s numbers are that dodgy it would show. If he doesn’t at least tell his caucus what his own polling is showing then he is doomed.
A public poll from Colmar Brunton that shows National in dire straits may well be what is needed. Meanwhile the caucus clings desperately to the sinking leadership of Simon Bridges.