There is a slow-moving coup underway within the National Party. We can see it between the noise and static of the global pandemic and there are clues.
The easiest way to destabilise the leadership is by leaking internal poll details. That is now happening, with key people in the political commentariat being leaked National’s internal polling numbers. Even some backbenchers have managed to get hold of them and they are aghast at the numbers; especially the net favourables of leader Simon Bridges, which are worse than Jeremy Corbyn‘s. The head line numbers are Labour on 47% and National on 38%.
When you understand how closely held those poll numbers are within National’s caucus then you can begin to realise the extent of Simon Bridges’ problem. Polling numbers are held by just five key people: the pollster David Farrar, Simon Bridges, Paula Bennett, Todd McClay and Paul Goldsmith. They are not shared in full with even the front bench.
The implications of a poll leak are stark. In reality, the leakers can only be either Todd McClay or Paul Goldsmith. If it is Todd McClay then Bridges and Bennett are corpses. He is Bridges’ right-hand man and does all the thinking for him. McClay also runs the National Party troll farm at arm’s length via one of his ex-staffers. If it is Goldsmith then he is actively working against Bridges and Bennett and they are also doomed but in a slow death by a thousand cuts style of coup.
A secondary thrust to the guts of Bridges and Bennett is simultaneously underway. This is coming from the wet wing of the party and started during the Blue/Greens conference where seven MPs were heard openly discussing the problem with leadership that the party has. A quick check of social media enables one to identify the attendees.
Two MPs linked to the Blue/Greens are also part of the dripping wet wing of the party, Todd Muller and Nikki Kaye. Both MPs’ names are being liberally bandied about, not as ring leaders, but more as super-spreaders of the gossip and innuendo regarding Bridges’ and Bennett’s leadership. Nikki Kaye’s claim to fame is that she beat Jacinda Ardern twice when Ardern was unknown. Good luck trying that on now, but that is the talk amongst her sycophants, which is also the same person who runs National’s troll farm. An unkind person would suggest that he is trying to get back in her pants.
It is also thought that Kaye could appeal to the LGTBI crew by claiming to be the first bi-sexual PM. Muller has made precisely one speech and promoted the hell out of it on social media. He’s competent but also dead-set boring. These two aren’t seriously being touted as the proposed leadership.
Now, knowing all that, you can draw clear links between all those parties to the talk of a coup and those outside of caucus who are spreading the rumours. It is a case of joining the dots.
While I’d like nothing better than to see the back of the poisonous leadership of Bridges and Bennett, there is a slight problem. There are no names being touted to lead the party.
The class of 2014 are sort of loyal to Bridges but most of them are dead set thick. A case in point is Brett Hudson:
The class of 2017 despise Paula Bennett, mostly because she has tried to gank a few of them. Some, like Nicola Willis, have finally realised that their political careers are over if they act like lemmings and follow him over the proverbial cliff.
That just leaves the old guard, and they are getting restless. They know things are bad and they know that Bridges’ gamble of ruling out Winston Peters has been overtaken by events.
Bridges’ and Bennett’s leadership days are numbered. Right now they will lose the election if it is still held in September. Most likely the election will be postponed. If that occurs, the smart people will ask for a year’s delay. That way they can weather the storm of the pandemic, let things settle and then start to hold the government, especially Jacinda Ardern, to account for their dreadful and slow reactions to the pandemic. To do that now while there is a crisis, as Bridges is doing, just makes National appear petulant.
If the election is still held in September, National will lose because most people will say that there was nothing the government could have done in a pandemic. Crisis elections usually return the government. When the crisis abates then those governments are usually turfed out. Think Winston Churchill in World War 2, and John Key with the GFC and Christchurch. In a crisis, the government understandably hogs the limelight. The opposition doesn’t get a look in. So a delay is best for National.
Which leaves us all with the underlying dilemma National faces. Who is to be the leader? Well, my thoughts on that are that it can’t be a vacillating, wet, ninny. It must be someone who is decisive and has a reputation for getting things done with a roll your sleeves up and muck in attitude to hard work.
The problem with this slow-moving coup is that it lacks precisely that sort of dogmatic winner takes all leadership the party desperately needs right now. Instead, I see a dark Boagan hand in all this with a Machiavellian plan that hasn’t really been thought through. So far the coup looks and feels inept, with no clear goal other than to remove Bridges and Bennett. And whilst that is admirable in and of itself, it won’t play out as they think.
This is a case of wait and see and the next critical date is March 31, the next caucus meeting.