A few weeks back David Farrar revealed that there was a move against Manurewa MP Louisa Wall. Presumably because she has the same problem as Stuart Nash and Damien O’Connor: she drinks beer, plays rugby and roots sheilas.
He was right about the move but wrong about what is actually going on.
Louisa Wall has no chance of remaining Labour’s candidate for Manurewa. This month she will be rolled by Labour’s Head Office, who will install Arena Williams as its candidate for the safe South Auckland electorate. Wall has very little support among her rank and file members. Popular support is not a prerequisite for winning Labour selections, but if you don’t have it then you need Head Office instead. Unfortunately for Wall, the leadership of the Labour Party most definitely does not support her.
It takes seven votes to complete a Labour selection. Three votes come from Head Office (always a block vote). Two votes come from the Labour Electorate Committee. One vote comes from a floor delegate (the first test of strength for any nominee). The final vote comes from a ballot of all members, with the highest polling nominee earning that vote in any selection panel deliberation.
Stalking horse, Ian Dunwoodie, has managed to recruit members and sustain enough support to ensure Wall has neither the floor delegate nor the final ballot of members. In effect, she has completely lost votes six and seven and will be trounced.
The BFD understands Labour’s affiliated trade unions are not assisting with their membership lists, so Wall is cornered with no support on the floor. Two votes for Dunwoodie.
Wall’s only option for reliable support will be her two Labour Electorate Committee representatives. By rights, these votes should always be with the sitting MP, and Wall can expect some support during the initial deliberation. Two votes to Wall.
The final factor is the three Head Office votes. It is almost certain that the party president or her delegation will want to select either Wall or Dunwoodie. Arena Williams will have been encouraged purely on the basis of needing a clean-skin circuit-breaker. So three votes to Williams.
What readers will not know is the amount of lobbying that is taking place right now to support Williams’s candidacy. Wall’s own parliamentary colleagues are busy lobbying for Williams, and the reason is the need to get her competitive in the ballot of members. Labour needs Arena Williams to have some local support and Wall’s own caucus colleagues are doing their best to help ensure Williams at least does not get trounced by Dunwoodie.
The selection process will see the party president hold the selection committee in a secret deliberation where the local votes are split two-two. After several hours a proposal will be put that neither Wall nor Dunwoodie can unify the electorate and that a compromise should be found. At that point, Arena Williams will emerge with three votes, and three tiring local members will be invited to form a consensus in the interests of unity and a fresh start.
There you have it, Arena Williams will be selected and Louisa Wall will be dumped. Which all goes some way to explaining why she has a shiny new website and a fresh board appointment to the Waitemata District Health Board.
Say what you will about Labour, they are far more vicious than National on occasions. They look after their favourites while absolutely rinsing those out of favour.
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