In December last year, the 1News Colmar Brunton poll showed that National +ACT could form a government, just.

Now two months later the same poll shows much the same, and this poll was taken after Simon Bridges ruled Winston Peters’ NZ First out of contention. That has to be a fail as Bridges has been hoping that the vote for NZ First would collapse into National. It hasn’t:

National and ACT remain on top in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, just pulling together the numbers to form a Government.

It comes as Labour enjoys its first increase in months, alongside a drop in support for NZ First and the Green Party. 

National Party – 46% (Steady)

Labour Party – 41% (Up 2%-points)

Green Party – 5% (Down 2%-points)
New Zealand First – 3% (Down 1%-point)
ACT – 2% (Steady)
Maori Party – 1% (Steady)
New Conservative – 1% (Steady)
Don’t know or refused – 17%

Labour’s rise to 41 per cent came after falling to its lowest result in two years during the November 2019 poll – 39 per cent. 

Labour’s results had been sliding, with today’s result the first increase since July 2019.

However, its rise seemed to come at the expense of its Government partners, with the Green Party falling from seven per cent down to five, and NZ First going from four per cent to three. 

National remained steady on 46 per cent, with ACT on two per cent, together having the numbers to pull together a Government. 

Corresponding to seats in Parliament, it would see National with 59, Labour with 52, Green Party with seven and ACT with two. 

This is compared to December’s poll, with National on 46 per cent and Labour on 39 per cent, October’s poll that had National on 47 per cent and Labour on 40 per cent, and July 2019 that had National on 45 per cent and Labour on 43 per cent. 

One News

As I discussed in previous articles National’s support tends to ebb away during the election campaign. As a point of reference the same poll had National on the same number in February 2017, election year, and they wound up on 44% at the election and in opposition. An average of both polls this week shows how precarious National’s position is. The average is 44.8%, similar to last election, which they lost. Labour’s average, 41.75%, is much higher than the last election’s result of 36.9%. The campaign season favours smaller parties, and that is likely to be the case this time around.

This poll will lull the dullards in National into a false sense of security. They will think they have the election in the bag. They don’t, and Bridges’ gamble has not produced any profit. Nor is it likely to either as there is nothing to grab that would ensure victory.

This probably explains Bridges’ “Little Sir Echo” routine in regularly agreeing with policy from Labour. Where is the surge that supporters were predicting after his announcement? Non-existent is where it is.

The BFD. Little Echo. Photoshopped image credit Boondecker

Now the benchmarks for the year are set watch them ebb away. The problem with favourables for Simon Bridges still exists. That isn’t going to go away.

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