I’ve spent the Christmas/New Year period listening to podcasts and looking to see some parallels between the recent UK election and New Zealand politics.
The video posted above is a great example of where Labour went wrong.
Basically Labour didn’t listen to what was obvious as the problems voters were seeing and experiencing. Consequently, they provided solutions to problems most people don’t rate as important.
The major point is that people’s values are being ignored all for the sake of diversity and the minority. A strong leader in the National Party would pick up on this and run with it. A sensible caucus would recognise that too. The pity is that they currently don’t and it seems that their plan is to be as much like Labour as possible.
Politics is about action and reactions. Sitting in the middle afraid to ever upset anyone is a recipe for a long term in opposition.
Politicians need to realise that the shouty types on Twitter and Facebook are not the majority of the population. The left-wing is susceptible to listening to them, but National is falling for the trap too. They set up a troll army to hound the left-wing on Twitter. It is controlled and operated by Todd McClay and his right-hand man outside of parliament. They are very vocal and are actually operating in the same way as the nasties from the left on Twitter.
Labour in the UK had their Twitter proxies, celebrities and pundits all leaping around the country lobbying and hectoring. One prominent exponent was Owen Jones who has a record of being wrong almost as bad as Martyn Bradbury. Just a few short weeks after the massive loss, Owen Jones is still talking up a storm of doom and gloom. It’s nice to think we will have another five years of lefty moaning. I am in favour of him campaigning, even more, as he reminds everyone why they hate the whinging left.
Chris Trotter posted this video at Bowalley Road that also explains brilliantly why the candidates and parties of the Left keep on losing to the Right.
What both of these videos also highlight for me is how much our NZ version of the MMP electoral system gets in the way of resolving voter’s needs, wants and desires. The mere fact that losing parties can end up ‘winning’ through coalition negates the will of the primary party. The refrain of pro-MMP activists was to look at two elections that badly showed that the majority will of the people was thwarted by FPP. Those elections were 1978 and 1981. Both of those elections saw National win despite scoring less votes. Now we have had 2017 and the leading party left out of government. This has caused resentment and as such it creates a situation in NZ not dis-similar to the Brexit situation, where people feel disenfranchised and powerless.
The problem for National, of course, is that they lack partners that they previously relied upon to govern. It is simply a pipe dream to believe that Simon Bridges will achieve that which failed John Key, a majority government. John Key always enjoyed a net positive popularity rating, Simon Bridges is yet to even get a zero score, mired in deeply negative territory. Only Jim Bolger has managed to surmount that, in 1990, and under FPP. Those conditions simply cannot occur under MMP, and they certainly won’t occur with an unpopular leader.
So, in summary, the conditions for a backlash exist, but our system prevents truly wonky results. National needs to get smart, let Labour pander to intersectionality and inclusiveness along with the climate change fraud, and create a real point of difference for voters. More of the same just ensures there is no compelling reason for the middle to swap sides from Labour.