In November when Supreme Leader Khamenei learned that protesters had burned pictures of his image, along with destroying a statue of the Iranian Republic’s late founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, he ordered his senior cabinet officials:
“Do whatever it takes to end it. The Islamic Republic is in danger. You have my order.”
The Revolutionary Guard, ultimately overseen by arch-terrorist General Qassem Soleimani, quickly went to work and the protests were quelled.
The greatest threat to Iran’s medieval, theocratic regime still lies with Iranian citizens.
Regime leaders know this and it’s precisely why they brutally cracked-down on the recent protests which resulted in the deaths of over 1500 Iranian citizens and saw many more “disappeared” and imprisoned.
Now that Soleimani has been killed by a U.S drone strike in Baghdad, the regime shows itself to be even more fragile.
Commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was also killed along with three other members of his militia – altogether representing a heavy loss for Iran’s military. But no spontaneous outpouring of grief has been sighted in the streets of Iraq or Iran, in fact after Soleimani’s death was announced, we saw Iraqi citizens dancing out in the open. Iran allows for only the usual stiffly, state-crafted images of forced mourners at the massive funeral to be shown. Iranians are commanded to solemnly grieve. Soleimani was admired by the regime’s supporters, but despised by the Iranian masses, who also hate the terrorist regime he loyally served.
Iran now faces a quandary. They long for a return to the American leadership of something which is closer to the Obama/Kerry style of appeasement, which afforded Iran billions of dollars that they used to foment terrorism and proxy wars. Iranian citizens didn’t see a dime of this money used to improve their daily lives, but instead felt the brunt of harsh sanctions implemented by the U.S as soon as President Trump was elected.
To save face, Iran needs to retaliate over the death of their top general – but if they hit any U.S citizens, diplomats or military personnel they know they will face an even harder hit back by the U.S.
Their economy is in tatters, their oil is not traded on the world market, their military strength is dwindling and their regime is internally hated by their own citizens. Even their state religion of Islam is dying in the hearts and minds of Iranians. A documentary titled Sheep Among Wolves lays claim to a sweeping underground movement which is converting Iranians to Christianity in their droves. The biggest factor in this religious transformation is the Islamic regime itself that has made citizens deeply hate Islam. The documentary claims that inside Iran the mosques are actually empty.
The Trump/Pompeo foreign policy doctrine of principled realism does not allow for the U.S to become embroiled in another “endless war” in the Middle East. So if and when Iran decides to retaliate, the U.S response may be heavily disproportionate – as Trump’s tweet to Democrats yesterday somewhat threatened:
“These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner. Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless!”
The “endlessness” of recent wars in the Middle East has been caused by a commitment to altruism and nation building. Trump has no designs on the American military being used in this way. His only objective is to force bad actors into thinking again before acting to harm U.S personnel or interests. That’s all.
Iran grossly miscalculated since President Trump showed much restraint towards their frequent acts of aggression all throughout the year of 2019.
When Soleimani recently allowed for pro-Iranian militia to attack the U.S Embassy in Baghdad (as he also did in Benghazi 2012), Trump tweeted:
“Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost, or damage incurred, at any of our facilities. They will pay a very BIG PRICE! This is not a Warning, it is a Threat. Happy New Year!”
Amusingly, Khamenei responded with this foolish tweet:
“That guy has tweeted that we see Iran responsible for the events in Baghdad & we will respond to Iran.
1st: You can’t do anything.
2nd: If you were logical —which you’re not— you’d see that your crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan… have made nations hate you.”
Then reality bit hard in the form of a sky robot sending Soleimani to the same hell that bin Laden and al-Baghdadi now occupy.
Despite the long list of Khamenei’s recent cock-ups, he remains correct on one important point – his Islamic Republic is in danger from within. When Iranian citizens do make a serious attempt to throw off their oppressive tyrants, they will have the support of both Israel and the United States, whatever that may look like. But neither of these two nations will do the overthrowing for them. The days of U.S-backed regime change and nation building are over.