Is Tasmania experiencing its own John Key moment?
Like Key, Will Hodgman is well-liked and leads a government of economic reform so well that Tasmania’s “basket case” economy achieved the rare distinction of becoming the fastest-growing economy in Australia.
And now, he’s walking away from it all.
Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman is resigning after almost two decades in politics, saying he believes it is the “right time […] to allow for new leadership”.
Of course, there are many differences between the two. Hodgman pulled off an almost insurmountable task: not just beating a system every bit as convoluted as New Zealand’s MMP to win majority government in a state which has long been dominated by Labor and the Greens but winning a second consecutive term for the Liberals for the first time in 22 years. Hodgman also struggled to deal with the inherited poison chalice of Tasmania’s health system.
But, like John Key, Hodgman is deciding to spend more time with his family. He has also judged that stepping down now is best timed, to give a new leader time to settle into the role.
“As we approach the halfway mark with two more years of this term of government, I believe that now is the right time for me to allow for new leadership,” he said.
“It’s unlikely, indeed would not be the case, that I would want to contest the next election, so this gives new leadership an opportunity at this point in time with the foundations well set.”
[…]Mr Hodgman became the 45th premier of Tasmania in 2014, leading the Liberal Party to victory over a 16-year incumbent Labor government led by Lara Giddings.
He secured the largest majority for any Government since the 25-member Parliament was established in 1998 and was the fifth non-Labor premier in 80 years.
He won his second term in the 2018 state election…His father, uncle, and grandfather also served in the Parliament of Tasmania.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-14/will-hodgman-tasmania-premier-announces-resignation
Hodgman’s political pedigree led to one of the funniest questions I’ve ever heard in a political interview. Interviewing Hodgmans junior and senior, a radio talkback host asked Michael Hodgman (the elder) if he’d ever had occasion to spank the premier.
Anyway…I often cite Australian political shenanigans as warning omens of what New Zealanders can expect, a few years down the line. In this case, though, should Tasmania look to New Zealand circa 2016? John Key stepped down from a successful prime ministership and a year, later, the COL was on the government benches.
Who will succeed Hodgman, after all? Peter Gutwein seems a logical successor but is absolutely loathed by the left-media. Michael Ferguson is an amiable type but has already been promoted sideways after bollixing the Health portfolio. Elise Archer, currently embroiled in the furore over the siting of a new high-security prison, is electoral poison in the north.
Speaking of the north: Jeremy Rockliff would surely be the most likely successor except for the fact that he is in the northern seat of Braddon. Outsiders are often unaware of the bitterness of Tasmania’s north-south rivalry. The north might be the industrial hub of the state, but the south is the redoubt of political power. But Gutwein is also a northerner: in which case, I’d lay money on Rockliff, who has also been tacitly endorsed by Hodgman.
As for the opposition: Tasmania even has its own Jacinda wannabe, Labor leader Rebecca White. Unlike Ardern, White is no fresh-faced newcomer: she’s already lost one election. But, despite their denials, who really thinks Labor wouldn’t jump at the chance to ally with the hated Greens, if it got them back into government?
Update: Peter Gutwein has confirmed a leadership bid, Rockliff has bowed out. Ferguson is also indicating his intention to run.
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