While the execution of the monstrous Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi should rightly be celebrated, it must never be forgotten that terrorism is a hydra-headed beast. Cut off one head, and a new one or dozen grow to take its place. So where to for ISIS, now their caliph has been despatched to the scented gardens of Allah?
For the broader Islamic State, Baghdadi’s death may not actually be a setback. To be sure, the killing of the “Caliph” and collapse of the territorial “caliphate” ends the group’s claim of paramount authority over all Muslims, and its assertion of leadership within the global jihadist movement now looks shakier. Yet Baghdadi was a hugely polarising figure, hated by al-Qa’ida and related groups, and resented even by other leaders within Islamic State, as last year’s rebellion showed.
Baghdadi’s transformation into a martyr and symbol of the cause will give fighters worldwide a reason to avenge his death, and (if past behaviour is any guide) we will see a rash of vengeance attacks in coming months.
theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/isis-on-a-road-to-revenge-after-abu-bakr-albaghdadis-death
One thing to expect is a possible wave of revenge attacks, especially by “returned” foreign fighters now safely embedded in the West.
More ominously, expect the Islamic State movement to reinvent itself, yet again. While its ultimate goal is the establishment of a fundamentalist caliphate, IS has shown itself to be supremely tactically adaptable. This is in the nature of asymmetric conflicts like the “War on Terror”: states and state-based militaries are hugely inflexible bureaucracies. Terror groups, being much smaller and fanatically dedicated, rapidly adapt their tactics as required.
In the case of IS, while it established itself as a true state – even issuing its own passports – as soon as it began to lose territory, it shifted rapidly to a cell-based guerilla structure. Hence, the wave of “lone-wolf” attacks in recent years, all following precisely the template laid down by IS in its online communications.
Still, Baghdadi’s death is a heavy blow to IS.
It shows to the whole world that ISIS cannot provide security for anyone, that its caliph does not enjoy divine or even human protection, and that it is presently on the run in Syria and Iraq.
Psycho-drama and morale are important to terrorist outfits such as ISIS and al-Qa’ida and, any way you look at it, the US success in this operation damages Islamist morale.
While Islamic terrorists have not, since 9/11, been able to execute mass-casualty attacks on anything like such a scale. But they have been winning a far more threatening battle: for the hearts and minds of Muslims around the world. IS’s shocking snuff films were no deterrent to young Muslims in the West: on the contrary, they were the caliphate’s biggest draw-card.
Using the internet, ISIS has reached into living rooms and bedrooms in France and Boston, in Spain and Sydney and Melbourne, in London and Brussels, and radicalised young men to the point where they will kill themselves and innocent people in the service of its ideology…There are now hundreds of thousands of people around the world who support Islamist terror. That was not the case before 9/11.
theaustralian.com.au/world/death-of-isis-leader-a-triumph-but-savage-ideology-outlasts-him
Worse, there are tens of thousands of jihadis dedicated to IS’s ideology embedded in the West – with more to come, should Western governments be foolish enough to give in to mealy-mouthed “compassion” arguments, and allow the return of thousands of “jihadi brides”. Anyone who thinks that these zealots won’t go straight back to breeding and indoctrination of the next generation of jihadis is sadly deluded.
The surviving members of ISIS will take their lessons and experience to the next organization. Other jihadists are watching and learning as well. Somewhere from this will come the Mark Three jihadist organization. It will be better than AQ and better than ISIS.
fabiusmaximus.com/2019/10/29/beyond-isis/
The question is whether or not the West will be ready and able to take them on.