Data from a recent public survey has revealed that contrary to what the Never Winston people have said NZ First going with Labour has NOT cost the party the support of its followers.
The Never Winston people assumed that because the majority of NZ First supporters before the election wanted NZ First to form a coalition with National that they would leave in droves when their hero and his party chose to go with the party that gave them the best deal for their followers.
They were wrong. Winston and NZ First have not lost them at all.
Before the election “44.5 per cent of NZ First voters answered “National” when asked to pick between Labour and National leading the Government, with Labour 10 points behind at 34.1 per cent.”
The data comes from the New Zealand Election Study, an academic survey of over 3000 voters completed shortly after the election, which asks a long series of questions to get a much richer picture of voter feelings.
[…] The country as a whole also backed National over Labour when asked in the survey, but by a tighter margin of 47 per cent to 42 per cent.
[…] NZ First leader Winston Peters was the clear favourite as prime minister, however, with 34 per cent support.
It is after the coalition was formed that the data gets really interesting. The Never Winston crowd told us that he would never be forgiven and that his supporters would abandon ship.
There is an interesting twist to the data though, because the survey period stretched across the time before and after Government formation, and it can be split off to see how voters reacted to the change.
NZ First voters prior to Peters choosing Labour are much more supportive of National, with roughly twice as many picking National to Labour. That flips after the Government is formed, with 48 per cent supporting Labour and 33 per cent supporting National.
[…] NZ First voters were […] more likely to strongly disagree that policies were needed to reduce emissions.
[…] NZ First were one of the main reasons the Zero Carbon Act was massively delayed, and are now understood to be stalling efforts to get agriculture into the Emissions Trading Scheme.
stuff.co.nz/national/politics/116301095/nz-first-voters-preferred-national-to-labour-at-2017-election-by-wide-margin
Winston Peters and NZ First stopped the Capital Gains Tax dead in its tracks. That was a huge win for NZ First and was a huge relief to most of the country. Winston Peters picks his battles and the Capital Gains Tax was a beauty. He may not please everyone because he doesn’t fight every little battle but the ones he does pick are important ones and they are vote winners. Admit it. Even if you hate Winston Peters and will never vote for NZ First, you sighed a huge sigh of relief when he killed the CGT, didn’t you.
Winston Peters is as cunning as a fox who used to be Professor of Cunning at Oxford University who is now working for the Cunning High Commission of International Cunning. I will never write him off because love him or hate him, he knows all the tricks in the book. Jacinda Ardern is playing tiddlywinks while Winston is playing three-dimensional chess. There is a very good reason Ardern won’t let us see what is in the Coalition agreement.