Running in Botany is a very, very brave move for aspiring National Party leader and PM Chris “Uncle Fester” Luxon.
He is running against a noted and committed dirty politician in Jami-Lee Ross who has nothing to lose. Ross is a man who could be the difference between being in a coalition government or being in opposition, as Peter Dunne held the balance of power in his later terms.
A continuation of Ross in Botany would be a huge win for Labour. It is one seat that instead of being guaranteed National, is persuadable. JLR could be the man who holds the balance of power after the 2020 election and be the single vote that gets a coalition to the magic number of 61 seats.
This means that the government parties and their proxies are already talking about a decapitation strategy, where they take out Luxon in Botany so he cannot become National Leader. Labour and the Greens can let their more feral members off the leash to attack “Uncle Fester” in any way they choose. They can run donkeys as candidates. They can put lightbulbs decals in the mouth of Luxon in every billboard in Botany. They can effectively endorse Ross as a good man for the electorate he has served for over 15 years.
That is why it is very brave for Luxon to run in Botany. If he chose a nice blue seat like Upper Harbour or North Shore he would be able to win selection then sleepwalk to the election and come into the National caucus as the new messiah. If he runs in Botany he will be the target of the most brutal campaign in New Zealand history, where government parties hammer him for a year to ensure that he is not the new messiah.