The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out and it is bad for Jacinda Ardern personally along with Labour.
Headline numbers are:
National: 43.9%
Labour: 41.6%
Greens: 6.3%
NZ First: 4.0%
On those numbers, a Labour/Green government would be returned. The Nats simply don’t have enough and Winston isn’t going to have a bar of Bridges or Bennett.
NZ First is tracking where they usually track midterm, and they always rise during the campaign while both Labour and National shed support. Winston will be able to credibly campaign that he can act as a handbrake on Labour and the Greens, but also soften a hardline National party.
ACT have increased their score and would provide two MPs, but not enough to get National over the line.
TOP and the Maori Party are a write-off.
Jacinda’s personal rating has taken a beating too as people wake up to the fact that she is pretty useless as our part-time PM.
Those numbers show that where Jacinda goes, Labour follows. Bridges still has a lot to do to improve his numbers. But they are irrelevant to the overall picture that National can’t get there and we would be looking at a Labour/Green government.
No party has ever won under MMP where the leader is less than their counterpart.
What would be interesting is to see some polling of what National would get with differing leaders. Say, Bridges vs Collins, or Bridges vs Muller, or Bridges vs Bennett.
Bridges looked smug and confident, but if an election was held today he’d have lost.