The two polls out this week have provoked a wide range of reactions and opinions. The dust now having settled, what is there for the political parties and political tragics like us to take from them?
First, the wild swings in the Newshub Reid Research Poll lead one to question its validity. The One News Colmar Brunton Poll is the more consistent of the two. Having said that, both polls showed a trend that was long overdue, and one could justifiably ask why it has taken so long. The answer could be a combination of giving the Government a fair trial coupled with a number of issues that collectively have had an effect on how voters have viewed the parties’ performances, particularly Labour.
It is important to analyse why National got the lift it did. The Government’s performance was obviously a major factor but beyond that, it is difficult to pinpoint much National have done of their own volition that contributed to their rise in popularity. National need to realise that until they introduce policies of real difference, they will continue to be tagged as Labour lite. They need to better articulate their stance on environmental issues, for example, so as to make clear that their policies are sensible and reasonable, particularly towards those in the agricultural sector. A clear differentiation from the Greens.
If the comments on this site concerning Simon Bridges are reflective of those in the wider community, and I think they probably are, then he is still not regarded as the right choice for leader of the party. There are too many views he expresses which are not reflective of the majority of those who would prefer to vote National. Bridges (and he is not the only one) appears to be taking the party too far from its basic tenets. The core support for National needs the party to come back to its founding principles. Until this happens support for the party will waver.
I, and no doubt many others, are in receipt of a begging letter from Peter Goodfellow asking for money to help with their election campaign. In the letter, he tells me National has been holding the Government to account for its actions. My reply to that is that very few National MP’s have performed in this area. Four that spring to mind are Chris Bishop, Michael Woodhouse, Paul Goldsmith and the standout, Judith Collins. When you consider the amount of material the Coalition has given National, virtually on a plate, I would rate their performance overall as dismal at best.
Peter Goodfellow might well be surprised at the less than expected amount of money that flows into National’s coffers. The President and the Board need to become cognisant of two things:
1. A change of the leadership team is necessary and is a matter of urgency.
2. A new leadership team has to be one that will return the party to its original raison d’être.
The leadership has to be capable of achieving this while at the same time introducing policies that are relevant to the present day but also reflect the wants of those who wish to vote for the party.
Otherwise, despite the rise in the polls this week, I still see National struggling to win in 2020. Their only hope might be in the old adage, elections are for Governments to lose. That, in my view, is a far from satisfactory way to win an election.