Nobody can say Boris Johnson’s first few weeks as the British Prime Minister have been anything other than a baptism by fire. Following on from parliament’s threefold rejection of Teresa May’s EU deal, Boris’s promise to finally deliver Brexit must have been music to the ears of most Britons, particularly those that voted to leave. Boris’s initial plan was smart; he announced to all and sundry that Britain would be leaving the EU on October 31st, come hell or high water. This, he hoped, might move the EU into renegotiating a deal with Britain… after all, a no-deal Brexit meant that a lot of British money would never find its way into the coffers of the EU; hardly a happy outcome for an organisation quite so elitist and corrupt as the modern day European Union. Boris also promised that the money not paid to the EU would go into the health service and other services; a direct rebuff to those that claimed that the British people were ‘lied to’ over the extra money that would be available if Brexit were to occur.
I’m not sure if Boris realised then that his worst betrayal would come from members of his own party, but if he did not realise it back then, he does now.
In a turbulent and tawdry week in British politics, parliament has passed a bill refusing to accept a no-deal Brexit, thus destroying any bargaining power that Boris had with the EU. At the same time, the Conservatives lost their wafer thin majority in the house, as a Tory MP crossed the floor and joined the Liberal Democratic Party.
Boris has now proposed that a general election be called, which would, in effect, be the second referendum on Brexit that Remainers have been calling for. Yes, there are always other issues involved in a general election, but essentially this one, if called, will be all about Brexit.
Well, guess what? Jeremy Corbyn, who has called for a general election on a daily basis for the last two years, is now not so keen on the idea, and he is not alone. No one, it seems, in Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or even the SNP is keen on an election right now.
They know they will lose. Badly. They know that the people want Brexit, and they are simply not prepared to do it.
Boris, however, is not done yet. General opinion seems to be that an election is inevitable. There is no government majority, and the situation where the opposition basically can run riot over the governing party is unsustainable. General opinion is that an election will have to be called, either in October as promised, or definitely no later than November.
And then the fun will start.
This time, the choice will be starker than in 2016: a no-deal Brexit or staying in the E.U. And this week, by firing the dissenters, Johnson has succeeded in making the Tories the uncomplicated “Leave Now” party.
His argument is a simple and powerful one: In the referendum, a majority voted to leave the E.U., and this decision should be honored or democracy itself is undermined. The E.U. will not let Britain eat its cake and have it too, and has insisted that the U.K. remain largely under E.U. rules even as it leaves the E.U., offering a compromise that was rejected by the U.K. Parliament decisively three times. So a “no deal” exit is the only realistic version of Brexit left. It’s the people’s will against the elites’. The idea that voters did not know what they were doing in 2016 is delusional. They were told endlessly that leaving would mean catastrophe in economic terms, and they still voted to leave. The real question is: Why have we not left on time? What’s left to argue about? Get on with it.
If Boris has got this wrong, he will be defeated and the anti-Semite Corbyn will become prime minister. But Boris does not believe that he has got it wrong. Johnson will be going for a big Tory majority, with a possible coalition with the Brexit Party, and a mandate to leave the EU on the best terms he can negotiate or no terms at all, if that is how it has to be. He will then have 5 years to get the job done and ride out the worst of the short term issues that exiting from the EU will undoubtedly bring.
Johnson has a clear case: that he stands for respecting a democratic vote to leave the E.U., that his opponents are elitists trying to defeat the will of the people in favor of a foreign entity, the E.U., and that Jeremy Corbyn cannot be allowed into Number 10. It’s right-wing populism headed by someone with charisma and a record of winning elections. Labour? Its strongest issues are domestic: better health care, tax increases on the rich, more affordable housing — and in an election dominated by Brexit, those issues will be less salient. Its position on Brexit, moreover, has been hopelessly confused, never quite achieving a clear pro-E.U. stance.
And if you thought Labour’s position was already confused, wait until you hear this.
In last night’s popular TV panel show, Question Time, Labour’s foreign affairs chief, Emily Thornberry, actually said that if Labour won the election, she would try to negotiate a new deal with the E.U., and if successful, then hold a referendum in which she would vote against her own deal and in favor of Remain. I’m not kidding.
And because personalities are all important these days, Boris has another ace up his sleeve.
As for Corbyn, he is the Tories’ secret weapon. An unreconstructed Marxist and anti-Semite, his approval ratings are in the 20s — almost halved from 2017. A new snap poll this week revealed that only 18 percent of Brits think Corbyn would be the best prime minister compared with 40 percent for Johnson. In a new poll, 43 percent of Brits said the worst outcome of a general election would be Corbyn as prime minister, while only 35 percent cited a no-deal exit. Elections are a choice. If it’s Corbyn versus No Deal, No Deal could very well win.
Intelligencer.
It isn’t quite over yet though. In another bizarre twist in British politics, it seems that Boris may have to declare that his government has lost confidence in itself, in order to trigger an election. This is not as crazy as it sounds, however. His government is completely hogtied, having no majority in the house. It can achieve practically nothing as it stands.
No one ever expected the tumultuous events of the last week to happen in the British House of Commons, which is generally restrained and boring, compared to so many government houses around the world. But such is the polarising power of Brexit, that even the British can get fired up once in a while.
Keep calm and carry on, Boris. You will get there. Have another cup of tea, why don’t you?