We said it at the time… whenever Winston has gone into coalition with other parties in government, it has ended badly. First of all, there was his Gang of Four approach to the Bolger government, and then there was the Owen Glenn saga that didn’t quite sink Helen Clark’s government but didn’t do them any favours at the 2008 election. Winston, it seems, always reverts to type. He simply cannot be in a coalition and make it work.
The signs of discord with the present government have been there for some time. He killed Andrew Little’s 3 strikes bill without batting an eyelid and destroyed months of work (and millions of taxpayer’s dollars) by the Tax Working Group when he decided not to support any form of capital gains tax. He could have done both much earlier, of course, but then the public would not have known that it was Winston that ‘saved’ them… and we couldn’t have that. Now he has done it again with the abortion bill. He even allowed a minister from his own party to work on the bill for months before dropping the bombshell that NZ First will not support it unless it goes to a referendum. Once again, that was done entirely for the benefit of the public, and no one else.
Historically, support parties in government fare badly at elections because they have always been able to make big promises that they never expect to keep… until they find themselves as part of an actual government. Winston’s polling is particularly poor this time around. He may decry the polls as being criminally inaccurate, but no one is fooled that he is not taking them seriously. Winston knows that, without an electoral seat, his party may be gone next year. Shane Jones is his great hope in the Far North, but success is by no means guaranteed. So Winston needs to remind the voting public who is really in charge… who put the government there, and who can unseat them any time he feels like, by withdrawing his support and either crossing the floor to do a deal with National or calling an early election.
He won’t cross the floor while Simon Bridges is there.
Winston’s strategy is a risky one. Reminding everyone of who is in charge just reminds them of the vagaries of MMP… that the country is being run by someone who now only commands the support of 3% of the voting public, and very few voters think that is a good thing. Those who voted for Winston to ‘keep the government honest’ might still support him, but many who voted for him to temper a fourth National government are unlikely to go there again.
Also, constantly undermining the government that he put in power does not actually make Winston look good either. If a large number of people had wanted Winston as prime minister, his share of the vote at the last election would have been significantly more than 7%. Most people want the government to be allowed to actually govern, and although many of us agree with very little that this government is doing, we can also see the abhorrent waste of money and resources and the power plays that are going on which just destabilise the country even further.
As with the previous governments that he was involved with, Winston shows absolutely no respect for his coalition partners. He pulls the rug from under them time and time again. And even if you agree with some of the things he does, all those who voted for MMP did so because they wanted smaller parties to have a voice, and to work collaboratively with other parties in government. None of them ever wanted the ‘tail wagging the dog’ scenario that we are now faced with on a daily basis. Winston may understand MMP better than most, but I’m not sure he is reading his own voters well this time around.
It has been said that Winston’s strategy for the next election will be to tell the public that a vote for him will be the only way to keep the lunatic elements of the Greens in check. This is a risky strategy in itself, as it reminds the voters of several things. First, it reminds them that the Greens are a bunch of lunatics who are hellbent on destroying our country and therefore do not deserve their vote. That might be enough to drive their support below the 5% level. It reminds voters that Winston deliberately ignored the wishes of the majority of voters at the last election and did what suited him. And it will also remind voters that, with the Zero Carbon Bill in place, the destruction of the oil and gas industry and the decimation of the transport programme for Wellington, Winston clearly has little control over them anyway. All of these things are part of the agreement between Labour and the Greens, which Winston is not a party to. He does not have complete control over that situation, because Winston is not, and never will be, the prime minister.
We don’t know what will happen at the next election, but a very good friend of mine, who is a card carrying member of Labour, is not confident about the outcome at all. Anything could happen. The government’s two support parties are dangling around the 5% threshold. It will only take one party to not get back into government for a completely new scenario to emerge.
Many people think that, if NZ First does not make it back, then this will mean a big majority for a Labour/Greens government. Maybe it will. But those that think along those lines assume that all of the former NZ First voters will now shift to Labour. Knowing how conservative NZ First voters generally are, I do not see how this can possibly be taken for granted.
It will be interesting to see if Winston’s strategy pays off once again. Personally, I think he may have overplayed his hand this time around. Time will tell.